One New Roof Away from Closure: What I Learned from Rick Reinhard
I started The Last Service Podcast because I wanted to help churches—especially those nearing the end of their lifecycle—find a faithful, thoughtful path forward. But every now and then, I talk to someone who reminds me just how big this moment is.
Rick Reinhard is one of those people.
Rick isn’t a pastor or a theologian. He’s a former city planner, mayoral chief of staff, and United Methodist executive who now consults full-time on the redevelopment of church properties across the country. In our most recent episode, we talked about the reality behind what he calls the “tsunami of church closures.”
That’s not an exaggeration.
The Scale of Decline Is Staggering
Rick estimates that 100,000 churches in North America could close in the next two decades. That’s nearly one out of every four.
And it's not just a rural issue. He cited the South Alabama-West Florida UMC conference closing 27 churches in a single year. He talked about the Roman Catholic Diocese of Buffalo closing up to 89 parishes due to financial strain and abuse-related bankruptcy.
The scale is immense, but what struck me even more was how quietly it’s happening.
There’s a phrase Rick used that stuck with me:
“Many churches are one new roof away from closure.”
In other words, most aren’t dramatically collapsing. They’re slowly bleeding out—propped up by aging members, dipping into reserves, and avoiding hard decisions until the furnace goes out or the boiler breaks.
And then? It’s too late.
Denial Is Part of the Problem
Rick was blunt about something we don’t like to admit in church leadership:
We often lie to ourselves about the numbers.
We don’t report declining attendance. We ignore aging infrastructure. We pin our hopes on “next year” without ever doing the hard work of asking: Where is this actually going?
There’s no judgment in that. But avoidance isn’t faith—it’s a form of self-protection.
Rick challenged me to see denial not as a personal failing, but a systemic one.
There’s Still Time—But Only If We Act Early
One of the most encouraging parts of our conversation was hearing Rick’s framework for early intervention. For churches that still have 50 or 60 people, there is time to act—but the window is closing.
Here’s what he says churches need to do:
Collect real data – Attendance, finances, capital needs, zoning restrictions. Know your facts.
Build relationships – With city planners, housing officials, foundations, and your own neighbors.
Understand your legal environment – Zoning laws and outdated building codes can block your options if you’re not paying attention.
Identify funding sources – Cities like Atlanta and San Antonio offer grants for feasibility studies, redevelopment planning, and shared use of space.
Rick’s idea of YIGBY—Yes In God’s Backyard—offers a vision for churches to use their land for community good, including affordable housing, health clinics, and shared-use facilities. And no, that doesn’t mean giving up your building. In fact, it may be the best way to stay rooted in your mission.
If you’re part of a church, I’d encourage you to do what Rick suggests: walk the property, sit in the back pew, look around. Ask hard questions now—while you still have options.
If you’re a city leader, a planner, or a funder, start reaching out to churches in your community. Some of them may be closer to crisis than you realize, but they may also hold the key to meeting critical housing and community needs.
We need each other in this moment.
And we need to believe that redeeming sacred space doesn’t always mean preserving the past. Sometimes it means planting something new on the same ground—faithfully, creatively, and in step with what God might do next.
